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What’s on our mind? You can read about it in our blog. Whether it’s ideas from the industry or emerging trends, you can read about it here.

 

Monday, December 4, 2023

With November complete, we can look back and appreciate how historically strong seasonality finally appeared. As of this writing, the S&P 500* was up approximately 9.1% for the month, even with the Thanksgiving flatness. That’s...

 

Monday, November 20, 2023

Editorial note: we’re taking a break for Thanksgiving; the next post will be live on Dec. 4, 2023. It’s been noticeable recently how striking the continued level of cautiousness and general bearishness out there is. To be...

 

Monday, November 13, 2023

Historically speaking, in October the stock market should’ve bottomed out and risen. But, as we know, October was late to the party. After weeks of battering, many investors (well, perhaps just retail investors) are skeptical of...

 

Monday, November 6, 2023

October is over. Most investors were probably spooked emotionally because markets fell for almost the entire month. But the last two trading sessions of the month saw the S&P 500* gain more than 2%, which was enough to limit...

 

Monday, October 30, 2023

We’re in the early stages of earnings season and there is a period every quarter where the flow of data slows to a trickle. We’re in one now. Results are being announced, but many more announcements await. Similarly,...

 

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Monday, October 23, 2023

There’s been a recent beginning of a reversal in equity markets after going oversold. So today we want to lay the groundwork on what the data is telling us about the fourth quarter, starting with earnings, which are necessary to...

 

Monday, October 16, 2023

You may have seen some views recently stated by macroeconomic investor Paul Tudor Jones: He went on to explain in detail what he meant. Basically, the current unsustainable fiscal deficit coupled with recent geopolitical risks at the...

 

Monday, October 9, 2023

Recently, it seems equities markets are fixated on a single issue: the relentless rise in interest rates. That’s for good reason. The higher interest rates are pressuring equities lower, and in the short term, it’s nearly...

 

Monday, October 2, 2023

The ocean is no place for people with weak stomachs. Equities markets aren’t much different right now. We’ve written many times how August and September are historically the worst months of the year for stocks. That was...

 

Monday, September 25, 2023

Perception is reality in many ways (in investing, we think data is reality). Just ask the famous fried chicken chain KFC. When it started opening stores in China in the 1980s, the company tried to translate its slogan,...

 

Monday, September 18, 2023

On the surface, the August consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected. Yes, this report breaks the string of two consecutive months of “core CPI” (excludes food and energy costs) month-over-month...

 

Monday, September 11, 2023

Before our break, we discussed the need for upcoming data. Well, that data came in. The strong data helped equities rally to end August – the S&P 500* rose 3.4% from Aug. 24 through this writing. Data clarity seemed to bring...

 

Monday, August 28, 2023

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We will be taking next week off for Labor Day, returning the following week. Enjoy the rest of the summer with family and friends! August has expectedly led to stocks feeling pressure globally, with many sinking to...

 

Monday, August 21, 2023

Wouldn’t it be great to be able to predict the future as well as “The Simpsons”? Maybe Homer, Marge, and the rest of the family could share some insight on where stocks are headed? This question becomes seemingly most...

 

Monday, August 14, 2023

By know our readers know that August and September are historically less-than-optimal times for investors. Illustrating this again, per our friends at MAPsignals, these two months are the worst of the year for stocks: As expected, the...

 

Monday, August 7, 2023

We’ve hit the midpoint of quarterly earnings season, so it’s a good time to reflect on what’s occurred thus far. For the S&P 500*, the number of companies reporting positive earnings surprises beats recent averages,...

 

Monday, July 31, 2023

Going into last week’s Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, we expected some stock market volatility that would depend on the Fed’s language, not necessarily the baked in 25-basis-point increase....

 

Monday, July 24, 2023

Sometimes patterns can suddenly appear, defying logic. Of course, human error can often take command too, leading us to think we see patterns that don’t really exist. That can make life tricky for an investor, and that’s...

 

Monday, July 17, 2023

It’s often difficult to distinguish signals from noise in life – it’s especially true for investors. To remedy the issue, we at Cornerstone turn to objective data. Many others listen to the noise caused by the media...

 

Monday, July 10, 2023

Hindsight reviews tend to expose pivotal market moments, enabling us to learn more. Looking at 2023, the S&P 500* ended the last quarter (and the first half of the year) on a 14-month high as most major stock indices logged solid gains...

 

Monday, June 26, 2023

Optimism has been in ample supply lately. Even the financial media has started jumped on the bull train!It’s understandable – as of June 16, the S&P 500* is up roughly 15% so far this year (not including dividends) and up...

 

Monday, June 19, 2023

We mentioned last week how the stock market is finally starting to broaden out. Leaders outside artificial intelligence and huge tech companies are emerging. The rally has led the S&P 500* to its next resistance level at 4,300.Since...

 

Tuesday, June 13, 2023

We investors might think we’re in the story “Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day,” where nothing goes right. Gloom from the anticipated recession is casting a long shadow (even though the...

 

Monday, June 5, 2023

People are holding their breath right now, waiting for the “next thing” to happen. Most are focused on the debt ceiling or the new (and ever-present) hype around artificial intelligence.The current consensus is positive....

 

Monday, May 29, 2023

Around Memorial Day, reflection seems natural. We first want to thank those who’ve fallen in service to the U.S., as well as their families. We also want to show appreciation for all who’ve served the country. What we do...

 

Monday, May 22, 2023

Nothing happens in a vacuum. It’s been proven again that when interest rates rise, things break.Perhaps that’s why there’s been a shift in the Federal Reserve’s worry, from inflation to the stability of the...

 

Monday, May 15, 2023

At this late stage of the 2023 first quarter earnings season, it's time to start moving forward to what lies beyond those reports. But first, it's worthwhile to look at the numbers. According to FactSet, S&P 500 companies are recording...

 

Monday, May 8, 2023

Sifting through distracting narratives can be fun. However, facts and data are often absent. In other words, things aren’t always as they seem.For instance, investors have basically been downtrodden since October 2022. Perhaps...

 

Monday, May 1, 2023

In the first three weeks of April, the S&P 500 stayed within a 100-point trading range (i.e., 4,050 to 4,150), which caused choppiness and a sideways market. The number of conflicting data points, adjustments in earnings guidance, and...

 

Monday, April 24, 2023

We’re nearing the heart of earnings season. This is when investors “follow the money” on first quarter corporate earnings and revenue reports, along with corporate guidance for future quarters. Of course, everything...

 

Monday, April 17, 2023

Last week we said there was a transition happening and briefly discussed what to expect in the second quarter. Now we’re starting earnings season, which will be led by the money center banks (how appropriate), and we at...

 

Thursday, April 13, 2023

With the last quarter now in the rearview mirror, we want to touch on some of its high points and look to the second quarter of 2023. All in all, it was an odd quarter, but one that we survived intact.Even with the craziness, the S&P...

 

Monday, April 3, 2023

It’s the first trading day of a new quarter and we’ve been researching. We recently completed our systematic quarterly rebalance and shift in allocation. But wouldn’t it be nice if there was an early detection system...

 

Monday, March 27, 2023

We’ve written about the Fed and financial sector fallout a lot recently. Today we want to focus on the market and the ripple effects under the surface from a fundamental and technical momentum standpoint.Broadly viewed, the...

 

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

After the somewhat stunning banking events of the past week, it’s time to turn the focus to the Federal Reserve, Chairman Jerome Powell, and the interest rate decision later this week. If there isn’t a pause now, or...

 

Monday, March 13, 2023

Things you need to know from over the weekend:The Federal Reserve (FED) allowed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) to FAIL while simultaneously rescuing Depositors – This was NOT a bailout nor should it have been.Signature Bank (NY) is...

 

Monday, March 13, 2023

Not long ago we said we would be closely watching the M2 measure of money supply, specifically awaiting data related to January. Well, the report is in. As expected, the total amount of M2 money in the U.S. financial system is falling...

 

Monday, March 6, 2023

January brought an unexpected jump in markets. February saw consolidation as bears and bulls battled. Now, we want to reflect on data with forward-looking eyes, ears, and minds for March and April, which historically are two of the...

 

Monday, February 27, 2023

It’s nearly impossible to absorb financial news recently without a heavy dose of speculation about what the Federal Reserve is or isn’t going to do with short-term interest rates, what that means to markets, and blah blah...

 

Monday, February 20, 2023

Editorial note: this post is part of the Cornerstone Foundations series that explains our firm’s philosophical thinking on matters of critical importance to retirement savers and retirees alike.At Cornerstone we often talk about...

 

Monday, February 13, 2023

Bond and equities markets are in a much better place so far this year than throughout 2022. We’re seeing more evidence of inflation slowing and it’s providing a launching point for bulls to run.Aside from the recent...

 

Monday, February 6, 2023

Even with markets opening 2023 on a tear, many questions remain unanswered amidst mixed economic data and earnings reported so far. However, when taken together, the entire package is being bought by investors as a “soft...

 

Monday, January 30, 2023

Last week we painted a rather rosy 2023 picture. But we’re also aware how central banks, economic data, and market forces are colliding right now. So, today we want to clarify the situation using more recent data to explain this...

 

Monday, January 23, 2023

We’ve mentioned before how typically the end of a year and the beginning of the next can bring light investor action and data, which makes prognosticating tougher. Well, we’re now far along enough in 2023 to have...

 

Monday, January 16, 2023

We’re in 2023’s infancy, and as we said last week, a change in the calendar doesn’t mean the investing environment or strategy changes. As CFS clients and blog readers know, we have a philosophy of believing in the...

 

Monday, January 9, 2023

Prognosticating is never easy. Remember when we said making predictions for 2023 is extraordinarily difficult? We meant it.Thankfully, there’s no harm in making predictions because they tend to have a positive selection bias...

 

Wednesday, January 4, 2023

In this final post of 2022, we want to wrap up some of the biggest stories of the year. Here are seven charts that we think encapsulate 2022, then one that points a way forward for markets next year. Without further ado, let’s...

 

Wednesday, January 4, 2023

Happy New Year! Welcome to 2023! Our attempts to predict stock values for this year are more difficult than normal because ripple effects from the unprecedented COVID-19 relief efforts still leave a wide range of possible outcomes. Our...

 

Monday, December 19, 2022

The market has been a whirlwind for a while, with volatility the norm as sectors rotate and range-bound trading remains prevalent. A microcosm of the entire year is what’s occurred since December began. Stocks have jumped and...

 

Monday, December 12, 2022

As we continue to wind down 2022, we can feel how investor tensions are still quite high from a year fraught with war, partisan politics, and economic worries. Fears of a looming “recession” have impacted stock prices much...

 

Monday, December 5, 2022

There’s no masking how this has been a volatile, indigestion-inducing year for investors. Our readers know our current thesis calls for volatile, range-bound trading, which is a continuation of 2022’s established pattern...

 

Monday, November 21, 2022

In our current range-bound trading environment, the market has been on the lookout for any reason to go up. Well, it found a new one in the latest consumer price index print that caused stocks to skyrocket on news of a...

 

Monday, November 14, 2022

With the Federal Reserve’s most recent minutes out and the dust having settled from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, we think it's important to touch on what it all means. We especially want to focus on expectations...

 

Monday, November 7, 2022

We’ve written in the past how bond markets have been controlling the equities markets. Within this current range-bound trading environment, bonds are the tail that wags the equity dog.So, it shouldn’t be surprising that...

 

Monday, October 31, 2022

It’s Halloween, but that doesn’t mean investors need to be scared, despite what’s on TV.See, as earnings season has been kicking into high gear, we’ve noticed many TV pundits advising investors to sell into...

 

Monday, October 24, 2022

This blog has covered some technical topics lately. We’ve mentioned winning in range-bound markets,  covered Federal Reserve policy ramifications, and used data to show budding normalization across the economy. We also laid...

 

Monday, October 17, 2022

The last couple weeks we’ve talked about winning at the margins and identifying areas of hope. We now want to turn our attention to data to understand the landscape better as the third quarter earnings season is kicking off...

 

Monday, October 10, 2022

Readers know that last week we put a microscope on the importance of the 10-year Treasury note when it comes to markets. We then saw that concept in action basically right after that blog post published.At the end of September, we saw...

 

Monday, October 3, 2022

Since we began this blog, our clients and readers have known that we’ve remained bullish. Whether it was the Greek debt downfall, Brexit, elections, or anything else, we’ve maintained a positive stance, especially when it...

 

Monday, September 26, 2022

Many of our readers will think we’re beating a dead horse talking about the Federal Reserve, interest rates, inflation, markets, the economy, and so on. But we still hear neighing – the horse is still very much alive...

 

Monday, September 19, 2022

We had a different topic ready to go for this post, but last Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report forced us to change course quickly. The common inflation measure dropped less than expected, indicating more will need to be...

 

Monday, September 12, 2022

Markets have continued to consolidate in September, as we suspected they would, which has created significant volatility. The theme of red prevailing in markets is holding true at the moment (albeit there was a nice reprieve late last...

 

Monday, September 5, 2022

After weeks of significant “big money” buying, we recently saw some market consolidation play out (as expected) in the “big money” buy and sell signals from our friends at MAPsignals. During a volatile week, the...

 

Monday, August 29, 2022

Editorial note: this post is part of the Cornerstone Foundations series that explains our firm’s philosophical thinking on matters of critical importance to retirement savers and retirees alike.Market and economic data are...

 

Monday, August 22, 2022

As earnings season ends, incoming data is slowing significantly. We mentioned weeks ago how important the upcoming data would be to determine which way markets would go. So now we want to take time to briefly review the landscape now...

 

Monday, August 15, 2022

With earnings season coming to an end soon, last week we received important datapoints for this quarter in the form of the most recent consumer and producer inflation reports. Readers know that in the beginning of July we stated that...

 

Monday, August 8, 2022

If you pay attention to the news, you’ve surely heard about “cracks in the economy,” hiring freezes, inflation, and more. So, things must be pretty bad. Well, don’t forget that negativity draws attention, and...

 

Monday, August 1, 2022

Last week the first estimate of second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy is estimated to be contracting at an annualized rate of 0.9%. But no matter which way the initial estimate ends up in reality, it seems...

 

Monday, July 25, 2022

It may be tough to believe, but we’ve begun to see some positive market action and favorable economic news (contrary to popular belief). In what’s perhaps just an interesting coincidence, this all coincides with the trusty...

 

Monday, July 18, 2022

Last week we talked about the macro-level outlook for markets and the economy, focusing on how important this earnings season would prove to be. Now we'll dig a bit deeper to explain today's markets and what to expect for the rest of...

 

Monday, July 11, 2022

This time of year, there is a typical slowing of the news and data streams. So, we want to take a step back and highlight what we’re looking for as earnings season unfolds once again.We’re just past the halfway point of the...

 

Monday, July 4, 2022

Our clients and readers know how Cornerstone as a firm believes in the power of dividends, especially stocks of companies that grow their dividends. This philosophical belief in dividends became even more important going back to last...

 

Monday, June 27, 2022

Markets are cyclical. At any given point in time, we’re somewhere on the spectrum between full growth and full capital retreat. And when markets are bearish, investors are always wondering where the bottom may lie.When selling...

 

Monday, June 20, 2022

Grab some water. This post may be a bit dry for some. But it covers one of the most pressing topics today – inflation.Last week all eyes were on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting to see how much the central bank would...

 

Monday, June 13, 2022

Today’s post will take a little bit of a different approach than discussing weekly market or economic updates because of the recent extreme market action. While perhaps unnerving, it’s provided us datapoints for important...

 

Monday, June 6, 2022

Our readers know how we often cite the Big Money Index (BMI) from our friends at MAPsignals. It’s a datapoint that tracks “big money” investment activity via a 25-day moving average of buys and sells. Well, it...

 

Monday, May 30, 2022

Last week, the trusty Big Money Index from MAPsignals, which tracks “big money” investor activity, finally reached the oversold territory we’ve mentioned for weeks. It’s the first time we reached oversold since...

 

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Tuesday, December 28, 2021

 

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Monday, December 6, 2021

Since the day after Thanksgiving, we've seen significant selling take place in global markets as prices flushed out fast. In this post we want to highlight two catalysts for that volatility, then provide perspective on what it means...

 

Monday, November 29, 2021

We expected some market consolidation after earnings season. It’s a fairly typical occurrence. And last week in the shortened holiday trading week, that consolidation arrived and was exacerbated even a little bit more (writers...

 

Monday, November 22, 2021

Inflation isn’t going away, at least not soon. Recent data show consumer prices rose 0.9% in October which means 6.2% over the last year. As a result, real inflation-adjusted average hourly wages continued their trend downward...

 

Monday, November 15, 2021

In last week’s post bidding farewell to the 4% Rule, we said we’d focus this week more on market data as earnings season drew to a close, including how that information would affect markets for the remainder of 2021. Well,...

 

Monday, November 8, 2021

Earlier this year we discussed Cornerstone’s philosophy on goals-based planning and how our Road Map 360 process applies those concepts. In that post, we mentioned some (in our opinion) outdated rules of thumb in retirement...

 

Monday, November 1, 2021

Market data are firming up and it’s being reflected in the trusty Big Money Index (BMI) from MAPsignals. The BMI is ramping up to a prior high point of around 60%. We're seeing quality stocks being purchased, and last week was a...

 

Monday, October 25, 2021

Our readers know how growth stocks have been especially mired in the mud for months. We can thank a lack of economic data and an endless stream of bad news on TV. That all put pressure on great stocks throughout September. But, as...

 

Monday, October 18, 2021

We’re heading into earnings season (as of this writing JP Morgan announced profits and Blackrock kicked it off with blowout quarters). Per usual, news is negative and it’s easy to worry about markets and stocks because...

 

Thursday, October 14, 2021

Top Financial Tips For Property Investors Investing in real estate can be a good way to protect and grow their capital, investment real estate is not without its risks. New property investors have plenty of opportunities to make...

 

Monday, October 11, 2021

The market gyrations continue. One day growth stocks are bought, and value stocks sold. The next day, it’s the opposite. Today we want to address what’s taking place under the surface of big market index activity and what...

 

Monday, October 4, 2021

For those who don’t know, about a week and a half ago the Federal Reserve forecasted plenty of changes to the outlook for monetary policy in the next few years. If we’re being honest, the Fed finally boarded the train with...

 

Monday, September 27, 2021

Last Monday markets saw red. There was a significant daily pullback in the big indexes, creating a media storm. But readers should have been prepared, as we’ve discussed the possibility of September volatility as well as the...

 

Monday, September 20, 2021

Earlier this year, we raised our forecast for the S&P 500 (the market). What you may not know is, behind the scenes, we've also lowered our internal forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth throughout the year (the...

 

Monday, September 13, 2021

We've spent some time talking about infrastructure-related investment themes and the opportunities that lie within. This theme has become more popular than even we anticipated, as 2021 inflows into infrastructure exchange traded funds...

 

Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Following up on last week's quick MAPsignals Big Money Index (BMI) update, we said we wanted to see more data. Well, the data surprised to the upside in a huge way. Stocks are being purchased at breakneck speeds again, while selling...

 

Monday, August 30, 2021

There are many theories and philosophies around retirement planning. Of course, as the economy and markets have changed, so have the theories and philosophies. But at the end of the day, they all work toward the same thing – a...

 

Monday, August 23, 2021

Our readers know how the “big money” has been acting over the past few weeks. Using one of our favorite data points – MAPSignals’ Big Money Index (BMI) – we can see a comprehensive view of institutional...

 

Monday, August 16, 2021

Summer markets are like washing machines in that there are different phases, and they churn a lot. That’s especially true of 2021 so far. Photo by Dejan Krsmanovic, licensed under Creative Commons License 2.0 © 2019 As we...

 

Monday, August 9, 2021

The “dog days” are here and it’s created a bit of a lull in the market. It’s expected for this time of year, but investors can take solace in the fact that history suggests things will pick up near the end of...

 

Monday, August 2, 2021

Big selloffs often act as reset buttons for the market. Our readers know how the trusty Big Money Index (BMI) from MAPSignals tracks institutional investor activity – they also know the BMI fell hard. However, current data...

 

Monday, July 26, 2021

Recently we spoke about traditional summer volatility. Well, right on cue, the sellers are finally here. Unsurprisingly, the trusty Big Money Index (BMI), which measures institutional investors activity (i.e., “big money), is...

 

Monday, July 19, 2021

Inflation. It’s on the rise and on everyone’s minds. It’s been on ours for a while too. We follow inflation closely because it could be a big risk on investment portfolios, retirement income, and spending power....

 

Monday, July 12, 2021

There is growing evidence that the market is fearless right now. There hasn't been a 5% correction in the S&P 500 since before the presidential election. And recently, the index set seven record highs in a row, which is the longest...

 

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

We just completed 2021’s second quarter and have reached the midway point of the year. Speaking strictly from an investor standpoint, it’s been a hell of a ride, a hell of a quarter, and a hell of a six months. In review,...

 

Monday, June 28, 2021

Our readers know we’ve discussed inflation and its risk over time to equity markets. We’ve also covered strategies to mitigate this risk. Importantly, our analysis on all these topics centers on data – we only care...

 

Monday, June 21, 2021

It’s no secret that we don't value the news too much. It seems to only kick up a hornets’ nest. And often, it’s just flat-out wrong. Even more eye-raising is how we’re not alone. A recent poll asking about...

 

Monday, June 14, 2021

At times, I'm sure some of our readers have felt like they were being held hostage when investing. It's not always smooth sailing. Some days it seems like your stocks are “red,” while everything else is “green.”...

 

Monday, June 7, 2021

As we continue our theme of generating income in today’s market, it’s important to recognize how investors have been inundated with a stream of “hot tech fads” in the financial news. Stories often tell of a new...

 

Tuesday, June 1, 2021

Sometimes waiting for stocks to move feels like standing in an endless line. But many investors, me included, want to know when the technology/growth sell-off will finish. The November presidential election kind of felt like a reset....

 

Monday, May 24, 2021

Psychologically, humans tend to want permanence – something to set and forget. But life (and the market) sometimes has other plans. Recently we saw market data disintegrating, thus creating volatility. And then along came a...

 

Monday, May 17, 2021

When it comes to stocks, everyone who follows the market knows it has rotated bigly (sorry, couldn’t resist!) over recent couple of months, and the past week was no exception. Stocks were wild and weird, especially since...

 

Monday, May 10, 2021

The media loves to talk about a president’s first 100 days in office probably more than needed. But in the spirit of that benchmark, and with President Biden’s first 100 days in office just ending on April 30, the question...

 

Monday, May 3, 2021

All good things must come to an end. In this case, we're talking about low inflation. While we think the odds of hyperinflation are fairly low, a return to normalized inflation rates definitely seems to be on the horizon. This is...

 

Monday, April 26, 2021

As a country, many of us are anticipating the COVID-19 pandemic’s end. We're ready to travel, dine out, see movies, and hang out with friends. Some places already act as if the pandemic is over. Of course, it’s not. Cases...

 

Monday, April 19, 2021

I suspect if you asked the average investor about their investments, most wouldn't have much of a clue as to the risk, the concentration, or maybe even the actual holdings within their portfolios. This makes them passengers, which...

 

Monday, April 12, 2021

One quarter down with three to go and it’s clear some things have changed. The first quarter closed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading the major market indexes (for a change) with a 7.76-percent gain versus 5.77...

 

Monday, April 5, 2021

Buckle in folks because it’s time for a post on everyone’s favorite topic – taxes! I know this subject is right up there with root canals and rush hour traffic, but with a new administration running the show in...

 

Monday, March 29, 2021

[Editorial note: this post cites the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) exchange traded fund as a benchmark for technology investments because it’s a good reflection of the entire technology sector and offers the editorial convenience of a...

 

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

This is usually the time of year when college basketball takes center stage. The best teams in the nation compete in a championship tournament where one loss means a ticket home – may the best team win. Over the years, the...

 

Monday, March 15, 2021

In prehistoric times, fear was mandatory. It kept you alive. But today, it’s different. If you have too little fear, you become dangerously daring; with too much, you’ll never progress. This concept can be applied to the...

 

Monday, March 8, 2021

With the end of the first quarter less than a month away, I’m departing slightly from the usual blog format to provide an educational refresher on portfolio rebalancing. This strategy is especially important now since many...

 

Monday, March 1, 2021

Things are looking up for the U.S. economy. The update on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth last week showed a 4.1 percent annualized jump in last year’s fourth quarter GDP, which is in line with our estimate of 4.3...

 

Monday, February 22, 2021

Recently we’ve written a lot about MAPsignals’ Big Money Index (BMI), which tracks institutional investing, and how it shows the market is overbought. Such a situation implies a downward correction is due, and we...

 

Monday, February 15, 2021

Everyone is talking about the stock market hitting new highs. But there is another bull market beginning to pick up momentum only a few weeks into 2021 – commodities. This earnings season, many of the earnings calls we’ve...

 

Monday, February 8, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced an array of…let’s call them “bizarre” experiences so far. But here at Cornerstone, we must say that seeing millions of young investors taking part in a real-time short squeeze...

 

Monday, February 1, 2021

We at Cornerstone have discussed low interest rates from a macro viewpoint periodically, but today we want to touch on the real-life applications of what that means for retirees seeking income from their investments. Simply put,...

 

Monday, January 25, 2021

Let’s start with some good news – the double dip recession so many feared in the fourth quarter of 2020 didn't occur, and it doesn't look like it will happen in 2021 either. Yes, renewed shutdowns starting in November...

 

Monday, January 18, 2021

The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, resulting in President-elect Joseph Biden and slender Democratic majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. These thin blue margins will limit many of the more...

 

Monday, January 11, 2021

I was going to start this post discussing how not much has happened because of the holiday season and new year. Markets were closed, many people were off work, no new economic or market data were released, and so on. Then damage and...

 

Monday, January 4, 2021

With our first post of the year, we want to address a question that’s in the news (we’re frequently asked it too) – in 2021, how will the market hold up, based on projected corporate earnings and revenue? This very...

 

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

In Cornerstone’s last post of what has been a wild year, let's start off positively with what can only be described as a holiday miracle. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates, released its third in...

 

Monday, December 21, 2020

Before continuing the theme of what we’re expecting and analyzing in 2021, let’s first recap the very recent past, which has been rather incredible. We saw new all-time highs in the S&P 500 (higher than 3,700), deliveries...

 

Monday, December 14, 2020

The COVID-19 recession is by far the weirdest one we've ever experienced. There's no way anyone could've forecasted the effects. The recession wasn't caused by the Federal Reserve being too tight. It wasn't caused by the trade war with...

 

Monday, December 7, 2020

Reviewing where we’re at today, the market has told us that the nightmare of 2020 is almost over. The major forward-looking indexes delivered all-time highs the morning after Thanksgiving Day: For some perspective,...

 

Monday, November 30, 2020

In the wake of the 2020 election, several COVID-19 vaccine announcements caused the stock market to jump, with no equity seemingly being spared – everything went up. But as we discussed last week, a pattern started to emerge as...

 

Monday, November 23, 2020

For all that’s happened so far in 2020, the market is up. There are several reasons, but here are five of the biggest, in Cornerstone’s opinion: The S&P 500 includes many large tech companies that we could not have lived...

 

Monday, November 16, 2020

Leading up to the election, many pundits predicted continued market unrest and volatility. They said the storms were coming, and it was going to be an ugly, wild ride. Now that we have hindsight, how did that prediction work out? About...

 

Monday, November 9, 2020

As we sit today, it appears there is no red or blue wave crashing down. Instead, we (thankfully) have an established system of checks and balances between the executive and legislative branches. Not missing a beat, the market began to...

 

Monday, November 2, 2020

It’s our last post before Election Day, and the best news I can give you is tomorrow it will all be over (hopefully). The second-best news we can give you is “stocks typically climb, regardless of who's in the White House...

 

Monday, October 26, 2020

We've spent the last couple months discussing what to expect from markets pre-election and once there’s an official result. Now it’s time to bring this plane in for a landing (despite the absence of regular air travel). For...

 

Monday, October 19, 2020

The seemingly ongoing conflict between market and economic data rolls on. In the first full week of October, the S&P 500 gained 3.84 percent, the Nasdaq composite gained 4.46 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.3 percent...

 

Monday, October 12, 2020

Investors are probably glad September is over, as it delivered its typical down performance, with the market falling 3.52 percent. While October entered with a bang, it wasn’t without drama, be it from an unconventional first...

 

Monday, October 5, 2020

We’re now in the fourth quarter of a wild year. And considering some recent events, it’s more important than ever to rely on data, not the television pundits Last week marked the end of a dismal market month, the...

 

Monday, September 28, 2020

In recent posts we’ve covered how taxes and regulations in a potentially changing political environment could affect investors. They could change drastically, and they’re just two of many important factors that will...

 

Monday, September 21, 2020

During the COVID-19 economy we’ve been providing economic- and market-related updates in every post. Typically, the economy leads off. However, this week we’re going to start with market updates because, after the last...

 

Monday, September 14, 2020

We’ve spread our wings a bit lately in terms of blog topics, talking about taxes, regulations, and politics in general as the election nears. They’re important discussions, to be sure. We’ll continue them in the...

 

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

We’ve analyzed in recent posts about how the market might be affected by different political scenarios. Taxes and regulations are important issues that drive (or hinder) economic growth. And in the future, we’ll cover more...

 

Monday, August 31, 2020

Like last week, we’re going to continue analyzing what a political shift on the federal level could mean for investors. In this analysis, facts guide us, and objectivity is the sole mission. Like many other people, we’re...

 

Monday, August 24, 2020

With the election about 10 weeks away, many of our upcoming posts will use a fact-based lens to examine how changes in the federal government could affect policy. We’ll start today with taxes because they could impact our...

 

Monday, August 17, 2020

At Cornerstone, we’re often asked about the “disconnect” between the performance of the stock market and the never-ending news about how bad the U.S. is botching its COVID-19 response. When peeling back the data, a...

 

Monday, August 10, 2020

In 2020, digital networks have been our lifelines. We’ve used them for commerce, communicating with loved ones, and so much more in our daily lives. Our memories are short though. We forget how daily-use technologies like...

 

Monday, August 3, 2020

Our faithful readers know two measures always on our economic dashboard – high frequency data and COVID-19 infections. These data provide insight into two key components to our recovery – wide-ranging economic activity,...

 

Monday, July 27, 2020

As markets start to stabilize and move sideways, we at Cornerstone want to take time to expand our analysis to look forward. Specifically, we want to discuss the types of market risks that will affect short- and intermediate-term...

 

Monday, July 20, 2020

The past few months we’ve been examining the economy and markets as COVID-19 recovery takes hold. We’ll continue that analysis while also stepping back for a mid-year review and sharing our outlook for the rest of 2020....

 

Monday, July 13, 2020

At first, scientists told us we needed 15 days to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the virus that causes COVID-19. The medical experts have consistently lengthened this timeline, leading governments to shut down economic activity in...

 

Monday, July 6, 2020

New COVID-19 cases have created uncertainty from an economic standpoint. As a result, investors are leery. Not surprisingly, markets fell recently – but not because of the virus. It was because of the fear of more...

 

Monday, June 29, 2020

This week we again examine what’s happening economically and in markets amidst our new COVID-19 reality. There is good news on the personal savings front. What happens going forward in that regard will be telling. As for markets,...

 

Monday, June 22, 2020

Bearish investors received a reprieve on June 11, as markets seemingly fell off a cliff. But since then, markets have recovered well, preserving the technical threshold of around 3,000 for the S&P 500 and 9,500 for the Nasdaq composite...

 

Monday, June 15, 2020

This week we continue to look at the economic and market situations in the U.S. Even though we’re in unprecedented times where nothing seems to shock, some recent data opened eyes everywhere. Welcome Economic Surprises The May...

 

Monday, June 8, 2020

This week we again look at the current paths of Main Street and Wall Street. In general, progress appears to be taking hold. Still, we’re in early days. But we like what we see thus far, and given what’s happened over the...

 

Monday, June 1, 2020

Right now, it seems there two rather stark American realities. The one investors are experiencing is prosperous and promising. The one felt by millions of American workers is fraught with economic loss and vast uncertainty. This post...

 

Monday, May 25, 2020

As another week passes in the COVID-19 economy, we remain pretty much in limbo. That said, there are some welcome signs – economies reopening, investors diversifying, and the like – though there are reasons for caution too....

 

Monday, May 18, 2020

The range of plausible 2020 economic outcomes is wide right now. Key factors on our ultimate fate include measures that don’t normally drive economies. As we’ve discussed, it’s the spread of COVID-19, how fast the...

 

Monday, May 11, 2020

There is more data, but also steady uncertainty. States “reopen,” but business remains slow. Markets gain and lose, but overall activity is mild, plotting no major course yet in our recovery. And thus, we remain in COVID-19...

 

Monday, May 4, 2020

According to data released last week, U.S. real gross domestic product for the first quarter of this year was down 4.8 percent, which blew away the 3.9 percent estimated decline. We’re now in the second quarter of the year, and...

 

Monday, April 27, 2020

Let’s review a little history lesson, brought to you by Cornerstone Financial Services. Today, we’re going to look back to better understand the Covid-19 economy. Of course, we first need to thank our “sponsors”...

 

Monday, April 20, 2020

Has the market moved on from Covid-19? It’s a fair question, given the significant rallies over the last couple weeks in both the equity and fixed income markets. At Cornerstone, we consider some of the uptick to be “false...

 

Monday, April 13, 2020

It feels like we’re in a lull right now. Economically and socially, we’re stagnant. Most people are abiding by stay-at-home orders, and since many businesses aren’t open, there isn’t a lot of economic activity...

 

Monday, April 6, 2020

The wrath of COVID-19 is still unfolding, and each day seems to bring something new. Thankfully, there have been positive recent developments on several fronts. But there have also been unprecedented actions that, while needed in these...

 

Monday, March 30, 2020

Unless you’ve been living under a rock or you’ve been on an “unplugged” retreat, you know about COVID-19 and the havoc it’s caused worldwide. There’s no need to review what’s transpired thus...

 

Monday, March 23, 2020

Cornerstone Financial Services clients benefit from a team constantly looking for the right balance between risk and reward. That’s especially true when seeking yield and income in low interest rate environments, like we have now...

 

Monday, March 16, 2020

For some time, employment data have improved. We often view them on a weekly or monthly basis, analyzing sectors and trends. As of late, the positive movement is clear. But rarely do we look at longer timeframes. And even more seldom...

 

Monday, March 9, 2020

We’ve been in a Goldilocks economy for more than a decade, wherein things have generally been good, and neither too hot, nor too cold. Frankly, it’s the best sort of economic environment, even if rapid growth sounds better...

 

Monday, March 2, 2020

Not long ago, we talked about a market correction on the horizon. That began last week, with the spreading coronavirus being the catalyst. We saw COVID-19 fears drive significant daily declines, wiping out gains for the year. Frankly,...

 

Monday, February 24, 2020

We’ve talked about it before. We’ll talk about it again. We talk about it every day. We’ll keep doing it until we’re blue in the face…because we can’t understate the importance of investment...

 

Monday, February 17, 2020

Every day 10,000 baby boomers turn 65. Obviously, we all hope to age gracefully and retire happily in the process. But the reality is the boomer demographic is increasingly a target for financial scams and fraud, to the tune of almost...

 

Monday, February 10, 2020

Since the last real estate crash, we’ve been making a slow and steady rebound. The most recent housing data not only suggest the trend is continuing, but that the rebound is picking up pace. In fact, the latest data blow...

 

Monday, February 3, 2020

At Cornerstone we’re fairly bullish on 2020 growth from a fundamental perspective. That said, there are potential bumps in the road. So, we want to be cognizant of the short-term risks over the next six weeks or so. The Market is...

 

Monday, January 27, 2020

More than $3 trillion in capital is sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be deployed. Coupled with the huge amount of stock buybacks we’ve seen the past few years, and increasingly larger dividend payouts, this could be the fuel...

 

Monday, January 20, 2020

Thankfully, we have a deal done for the first phase of a U.S.-China trade pact, avoiding more tariffs. Just as well, Congress passed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaces the outdated North American Free...

 

Monday, January 13, 2020

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, which aims to provide a clearer path to a secure retirement for more Americans, recently passed into law. The new law includes many significant changes to the...

 

Monday, January 6, 2020

Our 2019 outlook forecasted a year of growth with some rockiness along the way. Looking back, it’s clear 2019 was a strong growth year. It also capped off the first decade in our history without a recession: Last year was a huge...

 

Monday, December 23, 2019

We’re in the heart of the giving season and I’d like to talk briefly about charitable giving. There is a largely unknown way to give to charities that can produce big impact for all involved. The Qualified Charitable...

 

Monday, December 16, 2019

As we enter the new year, the Cornerstone team is continually examining equity and fixed income market data for what to expect in the future. Currently, we see opportunity for continued growth in 2020. Here’s why. Productivity...

 

Monday, December 9, 2019

It’s been a brutal decade for emerging markets (EM) investors. But that trend may begin to change in 2020. There’s a possibility the EM disaster (relative to the S&P 500’s rise) could be on hold in the next 6-12...

 

Monday, December 2, 2019

With the holidays upon us, we’re making a lot of purchases. In fact, the National Retail Federation forecasts nearly $731 billion in holiday spending this year. Yet, we often hear in the media about the “death of...

 

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Employees often have a sense of security associated with qualified workplace retirement plans (401(k), 403(b), etc.). It could be because of loyalty to their employer, belief in their retirement plan, or anything else. But employees...

 

Sunday, November 17, 2019

I can’t say it enough – economic fundamentals are what really matter. Earnings and revenue are the levers that drive the economy. Almost all third quarter earnings have been reported, so it’s time to look to estimates...

 

Sunday, November 10, 2019

The marginal yield curve inversion has made a lot of news this year because of its supposed ability to predict recessions on several prior occasions. If history repeats itself, there’s already a countdown on when our economic...

 

Sunday, November 3, 2019

There’s been a recent tweak to the U.S. trade talks with China. The two nations are now employing a phased approach to the negotiations and approaching agreement on the first phase. The new approach is most likely the result of...

 

Monday, October 28, 2019

In our last post, we explained what rebalancing is, why it’s a good thing for investment portfolios, and the importance of having a plan. Now we’re going to dive deeper into why rebalancing works and how often you should it...

 

Monday, October 21, 2019

The world is about to change. I’ve written about the coming 5G revolution, describing how it will enable widespread innovation, and how the buildout could be rewarding for investors as well. The pace of change will be rapid, and...

 

Monday, October 14, 2019

A most-welcome sign of economic strength for investors is arriving as S&P 500 dividend payouts are expected to reach an all-time high of $122 billion in Q3 2019. In the second quarter, the S&P 500 paid out $118.68 billion in cash...

 

Monday, October 7, 2019

Last month’s drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure caught the world’s energy markets off-guard. While details are still being determined, a few things are known. The attack took 5 percent of global oil...

 

Monday, September 30, 2019

When I see large, old trees, I often wonder the path they took to achieve their impressive forms. See, as trees grow, they need to be trimmed and “seen to” every now and again. If you’re a homeowner with trees on your...

 

Monday, September 23, 2019

The Harbaugh family is famous in coaching circles, having produced multiple head football coaches. They’re also famous for the saying – “Who’s got it better than us? Nobody.” The quote speaks to the...

 

Monday, September 16, 2019

The market rallied last month because of strong financial results from retailers, with Target, Walmart, and Lowe’s leading the pack. Interestingly, the consumer discretionary sector, which sells goods and services the public...

 

Monday, September 9, 2019

If you’ve been around any financial news lately, you’ve heard about the inverted yield curve. Most of the headlines say we need to worry, that the end is near, and recession is imminent. At Cornerstone, we don’t see...

 

Monday, August 26, 2019

I want to talk about income inequality – but not in the way you’re probably used to hearing in the news. Normally, income inequality is discussed along racial or gender lines. That’s an important discussion, without a...

 

Monday, August 19, 2019

In our last post, we discussed the opportunities and challenges unique to 1031 exchanges. We learned that while the 1031 exchange is a powerful planning tool, it’s limited by IRS rules. Specifically, the requirements around the...

 

Monday, August 12, 2019

Normally I’m very positive in everything I talk about, and that’s primarily because there’s so much good to discuss. For instance, we’ve had 3-percent gross domestic product growth, low inflation, low interest...

 

Monday, August 5, 2019

So far in this series we’ve discussed the basic parts of Medicare and “Medigap” supplement plans. Now let’s dive deeper into “Medicare Advantage” plans, which package Medicare Parts A and B with...

 

Monday, July 22, 2019

When you enroll in Medicare, you receive healthcare benefits, but what if they aren’t enough? Well, there are a couple ways you can supplement Medicare coverage, bridging the divide between basic coverage and what you really need...

 

Monday, July 15, 2019

Cornerstone Financial Services is in constant pursuit of investment opportunities, using data to inform decisions that we hope ultimately result in healthy capital gains. And right now, our opinion is that the world may be at the edge...

 

Monday, July 8, 2019

In our last post on 1031 exchanges, we explained what they are and how they deliver a unique tax deferral benefit for real estate investors or selling business owners with real estate. But like any financial tool or strategy, there are...

 

Monday, July 1, 2019

At Cornerstone Financial Services, we talk a lot about eliminating the noise from the financial media (especially bad news), and instead being data-driven to find real opportunities. To drive that home further, let’s be clear...

 

Monday, June 24, 2019

At Cornerstone, we’re no strangers to helping retirees and those close to retirement handle many aspects of their financial lives. That undoubtedly includes medical costs, which are often higher as age increases. That’s why...

 

Monday, June 17, 2019

In our last series on real estate investing, we covered the basics, including how real estate offers unique income and estate tax opportunities. But as we know, one of the potential downfalls of real estate investing is directly owning...

 

Monday, June 10, 2019

There has been a bit of a recent pullback in the stock market, which history (and recent earnings reports) has shown can be a great opportunity for investors. Let’s start with earnings. This last earnings season brought some...

 

Monday, June 3, 2019

Recent volatility in the market can be attributed to the trade negotiations between China and the U.S. hitting an impasse. It’s gotten to the point where each country has announced new tariffs on the other, which potentially...

 

Monday, May 27, 2019

When it comes to the need for long-term care (LTC), there are basically three choices: Ignore it Self-fund or self-insure it Leverage existing assets for funding Which one are you doing right now? If you’re like most Americans,...

 

Monday, May 20, 2019

Let’s talk about oil. The U.S. benchmark for crude oil – the West Texas Intermediate crude oil index (WTI) – hit a high point at the end of the first quarter in 2014 at $107.26 per barrel, and a low point in February...

 

Monday, May 13, 2019

The ongoing trade debate between China and the U.S. is losing its steam following the early 2019 Chinese economic rebound (6.4 percent gross domestic product growth in the first quarter). It was a higher-than-expected result and made...

 

Monday, May 6, 2019

The stock market hitting an all-time high made us at Cornerstone Financial Services think of how far things have come in a decade. To refresh your memory, let’s journey back in time to the first half of 2009, where things are...

 

Monday, April 22, 2019

In our previous post in this series, we looked at why you would consider investing in real estate and the ways it can be done. Now we’ll examine one of those ways in more detail – direct investing. Invest Carefully and...

 

Monday, April 15, 2019

The sentiment for the third and fourth quarters of 2019 is that earnings will recover from the trough we experienced in the first quarter of the year. Data firm FactSet analyzed investment analyst reports and determined there is a...

 

Monday, April 8, 2019

In our last post, we discussed how Americans are more vulnerable than ever when it comes to protecting themselves and their families with life insurance. Today, we’ll dive more into the types of life insurance available and the...

 

Monday, April 1, 2019

In an abrupt and surprising change in policy, the Federal Reserve announced last month that there will be no interest rate hikes in 2019, and perhaps only one in 2020. It was widely believed the Fed would increase the Federal Funds...

 

Monday, March 25, 2019

Some folks continue to focus on the negatives in the financial sector. However, we at Cornerstone Financial Services think there’s much to praise about it. The recovery from the 2009 crisis is clearly ongoing; however, the job...

 

Monday, March 18, 2019

Last time we looked at real estate as an investment option relative to other types of investments. Now it’s time for a simple real estate investing question – do you want to do the dirty work of property ownership, or would...

 

Monday, March 11, 2019

The stock market at the end of 2018 was a dumping ground. But 2019 has seen a huge turnaround, so far. Let’s take a look into the valuations and key growth sectors driving the good performance. Valuations Price-to-earnings (P/E)...

 

Monday, March 4, 2019

Based on our experience at Cornerstone Financial Services, most people think long-term care (LTC) is confusing and a subject to be avoided. But it doesn’t have to be. When you boil it down, the basics of LTC are rather simple. In...

 

Monday, February 25, 2019

Last month we discussed how rising interest rates hurt traditional fixed income strategies. While bond performance may be lacking, it doesn’t mean lower-volatility investment instruments shouldn’t exist in a portfolio. From...

 

Monday, February 18, 2019

One of the greatest benefits of a financial plan is it provides a clear signal in a world full of noise. This is particularly true in times of market volatility. A bumpy ride can bring emotion into the mix – and that can be...

 

Monday, February 11, 2019

Most Americans don’t have enough life insurance. Many have none at all. And every one of these folks are subjecting their families and their assets to substantial risk. To dive deeper into the American life insurance coverage gap...

 

Monday, February 4, 2019

At Cornerstone Financial Services, we use a “panoramic planning” methodology that manages both risk and assets. In our opinion, risk isn’t discussed enough in general, especially since it’s such a big variable...

 

Thursday, January 31, 2019

A constant topic of discussion at Cornerstone Financial Services is investment diversification. Most people think that means some mix of stocks and bonds. But there are other alternatives available for investors to reach their goals....

 

Monday, January 28, 2019

Over the years, Cornerstone Financial Services spoke often with clients about the effects of interest rates on traditional fixed income. We’re continuing that practice because everything still holds true in 2019. In this post...

 

Friday, January 25, 2019

The next big recession is supposed to hit in 2019. People in the media have been echoing this sentiment for a while. But I’m here to tell you, according to the hard data, that’s simply incorrect. We might not have a...

 

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

According to pundits, 2019 either has recession written all over it, or it will be a great year. Not to discredit pundits and their accolades, but it’s important to realize headline news often has an underlying agenda. Plus, fear...